Strange Days for Financial Markets Don’t Necessarily Mean Recession

 In Fishkind Commentaries

That’s how economic analyst Hank Fishkind describes financial markets recently.

Here’s one of the reasons why: US stocks have hit record highs, but at the same time, interest rates on US bonds have dropped to near-record lows. It’s quite unusual to have those opposite directions at the same time.

Also, the economic recovery that technically started in 2009 is starting to show its age – which at seven years, is well above average.

90.7’s Nicole Creston asked Fishkind if this strange combination of market indicators means another recession is on the horizon.


Hank’s Highlights:

  • Recessions typically come about because of the buildup of large imbalances that cannot be sustained, which is in part what triggered the Great Recession, or because of capacity constraints, or some political events such as unrest or war
  • Certain market indicators can be harbingers of recession, but, as odd as the stocks and bonds markets’ recent movements may look, they do not appear to be heralding imminent recession
  • Florida and Central Florida in particular benefit from low interest rates and continued steady growth in U.S. jobs and incomes. So from that limited local perspective, the current economic condition with all of its uncertainty is overall quite beneficial
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